[Space] predictions for this weekend

[Rick Mann]

Nice thing about actually crossing an airport...usually the planes are landing in that area, and hence lower to the ground.

On Jun 3, 2010, at 23:53:14, Blake Barrett wrote:

> How many airports does that projected trajectory cross I wonder?
> 
> 
> On Thu, Jun 3, 2010 at 11:39 PM, Bryan Klofas <bklofas at gmail.com> wrote:
> Hey Everybody--
> 
> I've been running some predictions for this weekend, and I think we should try and launch farther towards the ocean.
> 
> I first used the Near Space Adventures online prediction script http://nearspaceventures.com/w3Baltrak/readyget.pl , and it put touchdown in Don Pedro Reservoir in the Sierra Foothills. Total ground distance of almost 60 miles due East. See w3baltrak.pl.png image attached.
> 
> I also used a "new" (to me) prediction script from the Uni of Wyoming. http://weather.uwyo.edu/polar/balloon_traj.html It put touchdown almost 25 miles East of Don Pedro, squarely in the sierra nevada mountains. See prediction_20100604-0000utc.png and associated KML file.
> 
> Both of these predictions launched from about the same spot, burst at 90k feet. It's interesting to note the similarities and differences in these predictions (both due East headings are on top of each other), but the Wyoming prediction is 25 miles farther east. Maybe it was using a much slower Ascent rate (less than the 1000ft/min I specified in w3baltrak)? I'm not sure.
> 
> There is also the off-line prediction program wbaltrak http://www.eoss.org/wbaltrak/ , but I didn't have time to install it.
> 
> Thoughts? I've had extremely good luck with these predictions in the past, if you use weather data from just after you launch, the predictions are usually accurate to within 5 miles. Maybe we should try launching from Livermore or Pleasanton.
> 
> later!
> --
> Bryan Klofas, KF6ZEO
> 
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> -- 
> Blake
> blake at blakebarrett.net
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