[Space] predictions for this weekend
Bryan Klofas
bklofas at gmail.com
Fri Jun 4 06:39:57 UTC 2010
Hey Everybody--
I've been running some predictions for this weekend, and I think we
should try and launch farther towards the ocean.
I first used the Near Space Adventures online prediction script
http://nearspaceventures.com/w3Baltrak/readyget.pl , and it put
touchdown in Don Pedro Reservoir in the Sierra Foothills. Total ground
distance of almost 60 miles due East. See w3baltrak.pl.png image attached.
I also used a "new" (to me) prediction script from the Uni of Wyoming.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/polar/balloon_traj.html It put touchdown almost
25 miles East of Don Pedro, squarely in the sierra nevada mountains. See
prediction_20100604-0000utc.png and associated KML file.
Both of these predictions launched from about the same spot, burst at
90k feet. It's interesting to note the similarities and differences in
these predictions (both due East headings are on top of each other), but
the Wyoming prediction is 25 miles farther east. Maybe it was using a
much slower Ascent rate (less than the 1000ft/min I specified in
w3baltrak)? I'm not sure.
There is also the off-line prediction program wbaltrak
http://www.eoss.org/wbaltrak/ , but I didn't have time to install it.
Thoughts? I've had extremely good luck with these predictions in the
past, if you use weather data from just after you launch, the
predictions are usually accurate to within 5 miles. Maybe we should try
launching from Livermore or Pleasanton.
later!
--
Bryan Klofas, KF6ZEO
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